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The
Martha's Vineyard Times is a weekly publication.
April 28 - May 4, 2005 Edition
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Growing April 28, 2005 By Doug Cabral Nantucket and Dukes County populations have grown fastest among Massachusetts counties in the first four years of the first decade of the new century. Bafflingly, Nantucket grew 6.3 percent between 2000 and 2004, based upon an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's annual estimates of county populations, done by the Cape Cod Commission. Dukes - that is, the Vineyard and Gosnold (the Elizabeth Islands) - grew 4.6 percent. Barnstable County (Cape Cod) grew 2.9 percent to get fifth place after the two Island counties and Worcester and Plymouth. The numbers are small, of course. Cape Cod's 2.9 percent increase represents just 6,453 people, increasing the Cape's population to 228,683. For Massachusetts as a whole, the population, according to Census Bureau estimates, reached 6,416,505 in 2004, a 1.1 percent increase. Interestingly, considering that population changes annually, the Census Bureau estimated modest growth in the first three years of the period, and a decline in 2004. Statewide, the Census Bureau also estimated that there would be a slight decline in population in 2004. According to the Cape Cod Commission, the Census Bureau estimates are based on “administrative data and estimates of births, deaths and net migration.” And it appears that in-migration after 2000, and especially following September 2001, contributed significantly to the four-year growth. “The Cape's estimated post-2000 influx of 8,097 new residents from elsewhere in the nation led all 14 Massachusetts counties.” When in-migration includes new residents from foreign countries, the Barnstable County number rises to 9,890, and it falls to second place among Massachusetts counties, following Worcester County's 16,073 estimate. Dukes County, by itself, was expected to add 788 residents between 2000 and 2004, and another 871 in the five years following. Forty-nine percent of the new residents, as of 2009, will be 35 to 64 years of age. Another 12 percent will be between 65 and 85. We'll be getting older and doing it more rapidly than the rest of the nation. When you look at the estimates for the portion of the population under 19, you can see why. Although the nation as a whole can expect that 28 percent of its population in 2009 will be under 19, on the Vineyard, only 20 percent will be members of the callow youth cohort. Some tentative conclusions may be drawn. Between now and the end of the decade the fierce growth trends common in the 1990s and in the period 2000-2004 may moderate, though not dramatically. At the end of the decade, although there will be a few more of us, we'll be a good deal more doddery, and those handy locator features on the cell phones will be pressed into more and more frequent service. It will get harder and harder to find a plumber, an electrician, a carpenter, a housecleaner, or to hire a teacher or a policeman from among the indigenous young. We'll relax our resistance to fast ferries and begin to realize that the faster the ferries the better, because workers who can't afford to live here can be imported daily to do the chores we did for ourselves for so many years. The school population may not grow much, may even decline, and instead of vocational education in the classics such as auto mechanics, landscaping, and homebuilding, we can establish courses in administering anti-inflammatory drugs, safe operation of adjustable hospital beds in the home, and hearing aid tuning. We'll have more and more carefully preserved, environmentally significant public lands, but fewer and fewer visitors, especially to the conservation properties where lots of walking is necessary. I could be way off base, of course. Looking at the historic statistics and projecting them five years ahead is notoriously dicey, and different conclusions are possible. Really, it's a mug's game. A final word, and that's it A final word on colonoscopy costs at the Martha's Vineyard Hospital, mentioned in this space on April 14. I reported that the charge quoted me for a colonoscopy procedure conducted at the Martha's Vineyard Hospital in 2005 was $5,407.85. Thanks to Tim Walsh, the chief executive of the hospital, I refined the number on April 21, explaining that the hospital's charges for the 172 such procedures actually conducted in 2004 averaged $3,400. The average payment to the hospital for these procedures was $2,024. But, despite best efforts, the comparison is skewed. Mr. Walsh further explains that the $3,400 average charge included the hospital's fee and the fee for anesthesia, but not the surgeon's charge. The larger number, $5,407.85 includes: pre-op $260; hospital $4,380.85; surgeon $706; and post-op $61. |
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