Increasingly fragile supply chain keeps Island afloat

The supply chain for Martha’s Vineyard is a casual system based on informal coordination and institutional knowledge, almost totally dependent on marine transportation. 

That casual network is not a shock to those who live here, but the vulnerabilities are anything but casual. In fact, parts of the Island are considered “highly vulnerable,” according to a new study.

Between geographic isolation, limited on-Island supply reserves, exposure to increasingly unpredictable and severe weather, and complete reliance on single ferry lines and ports, the network of people, companies, and resources that transport essentials — food, fuel, construction materials, and waste — to and from the Island is fragile.

The study publicized at the end of June from the Martha’s Vineyard Commission (MVC) found that the Island’s supply chain functions as a “tightly interconnected but highly fragile system, dependent almost entirely on marine transportation and a small number of critical operators,” and as sea levels rise, storms intensify, and infrastructure ages, there are more and more risks to the economy, public service, and daily life on the Island.

Just as the summer season started, the MVC, the town of Nantucket, and the town of Gosnold, more informally known as the Elizabeth Islands, completed a preliminary risk assessment of the islands’ supply chains with funds from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) through the agency’s ResilientCoasts Initiative.

The initiative, which culminated in a final plan released last year that outlines guidance and strategies for near- and long-term vulnerability from sea level rise, storm surge, and erosion over the next half-century, found that parts of Martha’s Vineyard showed very high risks, in the 85th to 100th percentile, for damage from coastal flooding to housing, built infrastructure, and the commercial and industrial economy. The area around Sea View Avenue in Oak Bluffs, in fact, was deemed as highly vulnerable in all three areas. It was after this plan that the CZM allowed municipalities to propose regional coastal resilience projects, which Island officials took up. But they didn’t look only at natural occurrences, like sea level rise and erosion, but also focused on how the elements could affect weaknesses in the Island’s supply chain.

The preliminary risk assessment was done by a group of consultants from Northampton-based Jamie Caplan Consulting, who worked between April and June 2026, and focused on data gaps and next steps for a longer-term effort. AECOM and the Woods Hole Group, both construction engineering companies, also worked on the project. Sakiko Isomichi, climate resilience planner for the MVC, who anticipates another round of funds soon, is now at every town select board to ask them what they want included in a secondary, more formal study.

The initial research focused on five sectors: food and drinking water, medical and emergency services, fuel and energy, workforce and passenger movement, and other goods and services. Martha’s Vineyard relies heavily on imported food, and there’s only around three days of food supply, due to a lack of cold storage and warehousing capacity, should the system halt. Healthcare providers rely on the ferry as well for supplies and personnel, while many specialized medical services aren’t even available on-Island; and access to the hospital is already affected intermittently by flooding on Beach Road. 

An initial report relied on interviews with those that manage the movement of essential goods; on the Island, that was RM Packer Co., the Steamship Authority (SSA), Cronig’s Markets, and Stop & Shop.

Every commodity, the study found, reaches the Island via water, primarily by the Steamship Authority, while RM Packer Co., a supplier of energy to the Island since the 1930s, transports bulk freight, liquid fuels, and waste; there was no mention of reliance on air shipment in the study.

The SSA, the only public authority mandated to provide year-round passage, operates more than 20 round-trips per day in peak summer months, and not only transports passengers and cars but also perishable food and groceries, fuel and propane, construction materials, medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, mail and packages, retail inventory and restaurant supplies, and waste and recycling. The 5:30 am departure from Woods Hole, currently a contentious topic for the ferry line, “exists specifically to accommodate the freight surge” in the summer months.

It was noted that despite lower volume, there is a higher risk of vulnerability in the winter months, due to fewer trips and a higher probability of weather that can cause ferry cancellations. The late February storm this year caused a five-day power outage in Woods Hole, and prevented staff from work and suspended the ferry; the SSA said that there was a large backlog of freight, passengers, and emergency vehicles. The disruption almost always cascades, the study said, and “a canceled sailing pushes freight into competition with the next day’s already full reservations, and grocery shelves.” Cronig’s Markets, for example, depends on two drivers who live off-Island and rely on early ferries every day. 

Packer, which operates the only deep-water-accessible terminal on Martha’s Vineyard that can handle barge freight, does about 13,000 round-trips per year, and 1,500 fuel-related trips. But Packer, which also owns a facility in New Bedford, can be restricted by the mainland city’s hurricane barrier. And though the staff has decades of institutional knowledge, there are concerns about what the study called “succession planning,” especially as a lack of affordable housing continuously compounds other issues.

The Island relies heavily on Woods Hole and the Steamship, which can be disrupted by both the environment (storms, high winds, ice) and logistics (mechanical failures, crew shortages), but there aren’t a lot of alternatives. There is barely any redundancy, especially in the winter months when there are fewer ferry passages, and some ferry lines completely shut down, and so “even short-term disruptions can cascade across the supply chain,” the study said. The SSA recently said that it has eyed New Bedford as an alternative to Woods Hole, though that’s a long-term goal. But the New Bedford Hurricane Protection Barrier, which protects the area from tidal flooding, currently closes 17 times per year, and is expected to increase over time, and would pose other problems. It’s operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and impacts the islands’ barge operations.

The consultants also completed a preliminary coastal flood vulnerability assessment to understand the physical infrastructure of the supply chain. It found that by 2030, the Cuttyhunk and Chappaquiddick ferries would experience interruptions to operations from increased coastal storms. Even the SSA’s Vineyard Haven terminal, used year-round, is highly vulnerable to coastal flooding; the Woods Hole Group found that there is at least a 50 percent chance of flooding as soon as 2030, increasing in frequency by 2050; the same goes for the Oak Bluffs terminal and dock that serve the Patriot Shuttle, Island Queen, and Rhode Island Fast Ferry. They recommended that the facilities be adapted. Separately, all ferry operators “noted increasingly intense and frequent weather events over the past 10 to 20 years” that cause cancellations; that’s only expected to get worse.

The Packer landing has a slightly lower flood vulnerability, and the assessment said Debby Packer, owner and operator, plans to build infrastructure to sea level rise standards, and a second barge ramp. Meanwhile, consultants estimate that Beach Road and the Five Corners intersection, a key part of the Island’s supply chain, already experience flooding multiple times a year, and are expected to see daily flooding by 2050, caused by sea level rise and increased water runoff as the Island becomes more developed.

And an increase of the peak summer crowds — which can quadruple the number of people from 20,600 to almost 100,000 as of 2024 data — further compounds these issues as demand for goods, services, and the workforce increase.

This was a preliminary study and outlines next steps, such as to formalize coordination and emergency protocols, which were recently studied by the Olson Group. It also calls for the Island to develop a shared data system for fuel reserves, food inventory, and medical supplies, to adapt ferry terminals and access roads to flooding, especially in Vineyard Haven, and expand on-Island storage for essential goods.

Other future interviews in the stakeholder list for the Island include the Martha’s Vineyard Chamber of Commerce, Chappy Ferry, Hy-Line Cruises, Seastreak, Tisbury Wharf Co., and the town of Oak Bluffs.