Updated Sept. 23.
Ahead of predictions for an early season nor’easter that is expected to pound New England, Islanders and transportation services are bracing for the possibility of heavy wind and rain.
As of Wednesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) was forecasting a gradual increase in powerful winds, with gusts up to 34 mph expected through Thursday.
The “heart of the storm” is expected to hit the Island Friday, according to Hayden Frank, meteorologist at NWS’ Norton Office.
The NWS site currently forecasts heavy rain and gusts up to 44 mph on Friday and Saturday. While Frank noted that the forecast could change, he warned Islanders to keep an eye out for the possibility that the winds could blow more strongly than predicted in the current forecast and advised keeping a careful eye on the storm’s trajectory. He said gusts of 45 mph or even more than 60 mph are a possibility, and Island officials were already announcing the likelihood of ferry and flight cancellations as early as Monday and Tuesday. These cancellations are concerning for local businesses and Island visitors during the height of the wedding season and the middle of the Derby.
“It depends on how close the storm gets to us,” Frank said. The rain and “persistent northeast winds” mean some of the expected impacts to the Island from the storm include coastal flooding, beach erosion, tree damage, and potential power outages.
Frank said in an interview on Tuesday that the storm’s strength will become more clear as it continues to gather into the weekend. Winds are expected to go down starting Sunday, which is currently forecast to see gusts of up to 30 mph. While not rare, Frank said nor’easters are historically more frequent later in the fall and winter.
The storm also comes while the world is experiencing a weather phenomenon known as a “super El Niño,” which hasn’t been seen in a decade. An El Niño, according to the Columbia Climate School, occurs when a change in the tropical portions of the Pacific Ocean caused by weaker westerly trade winds along the equator leads to warmer-than-average surface water temperatures. The super, or very strong, version occurs when the water temperature rises by more than two degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above long-term averages.
In New England, this leads to more humid summers, and the higher atmospheric moisture leads to more frequent heavy rainstorms and afternoon thunderstorms. Boston radio station WBUR reported that in exchange for more rain, the Atlantic Ocean gets a “shield” to hurricanes because of the jetstreams being rerouted. Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a “below-normal” hurricane season in the Atlantic. This means seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes, and two or no major hurricanes.
In turn, the Pacific gets a more active and dangerous hurricane season, as can be seen off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Polo, the third Category 5 hurricane this year, reached the most powerful storm designation on Tuesday, whipping up wind speeds of around 215 mph. It is one of the strongest storms in the history of the Pacific Basin. Frank said the hurricane is expected to “brush” Mexico.
The super El Niño’s more frequent, heavy rain in the Atlantic reflects the climatic changes that have contributed to more flooding on the Island, such as was seen this summer, especially during the chaos of Fourth of July weekend. The Island experienced exhausting heat waves, a series of incidents including car fires, and flooding that is all too familiar at Tisbury’s Five Corners and Beach Road during the holiday weekend.
Meanwhile, local preparations are underway for the possible rough weather this weekend.
“We’re monitoring the weather closely,” Michael Gately, the Tisbury harbormaster, told The Times, noting this nor’easter seems “pretty gusty.” Gately said some boaters had already moved their vessels off moorings in the harbor over to Lagoon Pond and Lake Tashmoo for shelter.
The Steamship Authority issued a travel advisory to customers that said there are possibilities of cancellations on both the Woods Hole–Martha’s Vineyard and Hyannis–Nantucket routes this week. Possible cancellations come just after the Steamship decided to reassess its approach in developing a new reservation system.
“High-speed service on the Hyannis–Nantucket route and all service to Oak Bluffs on the Woods Hole–Martha’s Vineyard route have the potential to be impacted the most,” the advisory reads. It also stated that all change and cancellation fees for reservations on Thursday, Sept. 24, and Friday, Sept. 25, are being waived. Reservation changes can be done online on the ferry line’s website, by phone at the reservation office (508-477-8600), or at one of the terminals.
Other ferry lines that sail to the Vineyard are also canceling trips. The Island Queen in Falmouth canceled sailing Wednesday through Saturday. Seastreak canceled all sailings on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the Hy-Line canceled multiple trips and is operating on a trip-by-trip basis.
It’s not just the sea. Geoff Freeman, Martha’s Vineyard Airport director, said he expects delays during the “brunt of the storm” for Cape Air and JetBlue, with “potential traffic flow delays … going down to [New York].”
“We are advising those who call us to contact your airline for possible rebooking to early or later flights over the next several days,” Freeman said.
Editor’s note: Updated with additional info on the weather effects of the super El Niño and additional cancellations by the Island Queen.
