The cost of doing nothing

MVC’s Climate Action Plan looks at the economic dangers of not adapting to climate change.

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MV Climate Action consultant Charles Goodhue shows projection of the potential economic impact to Island businesses. — screenshot

The Climate Action Plan’s latest event, on March 23, sponsored by the Martha’s Vineyard Commission, featured a presentation by economist Charles Goodhue. The presentation focused on his research into the economic impact Martha’s Vineyard could endure in the future resulting from climate change.

The MVC’s Climate Action Plan is focused on addressing the ways in which climate change will affect the Island, including educating the public and inviting an array of experts to talk about different facets of the issue. A new theme is highlighted each month, March being Economic Resilience Month.

Goodhue, a senior economist and project manager at Eastern Research Group (ERG), serves as an economic resilience consultant for the MVC’s Climate Action Plan. He is tasked with relaying scientific data as it relates to the economy, and specifically at this session, explaining the potential financial risks of choosing not to adapt to the inevitability of climate change–caused sea level rise and storm surges.

Goodhue’s presentation highlighted the projected impact climate change–related weather events would have on Island businesses, including job security, retail sales, and damage to both residential and public buildings.

The estimates, Goodhue says, are based on the confirmed data of current sea level rise and the “every-year storm,” which is the annual storm patterns the Vineyard experiences now, in conjunction with the hypothetical, but quite possible, “100-year storm.”

The projection model estimates that, considering current coastal flooding from sea level rise (SLR), and water variability from tides and storm surges that contribute to extreme sea level events (ESL), if a 100-year storm were to hit Martha’s Vineyard, the Island as a whole could be looking at nearly $1 billion worth of damages to buildings alone by 2050. 

Oak Bluffs is the most vulnerable, says Goodhue, and could expect upwards of 24 percent of the overall value of housing impacted, with Edgartown and Vineyard Haven experiencing damage to 10 percent and 11 percent of all buildings, respectively. 

According to Goodhue’s projections, using stats from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, all Island towns will be gravely affected by just sea level rise and coastal flooding alone by 2030 — impacting an estimated 11 percent of jobs in Oak Bluffs, and more than 12 percent of jobs in Chilmark. In the event of a 100-year storm, Chilmark would see nearly 30 percent of jobs impacted, in addition to over 20 percent of jobs in Oak Bluffs.

While the study’s scope does not consider some of the broader economic impacts, such as road damage, property value tax, decrease in tourism, loss of beaches, or ecosystem services and related infrastructure, it highlights the destruction the Island is faced with if no action is taken to mitigate or prepare for climate change–related events.

Although not every Island town shares the same level of vulnerability, when considering possible solutions for SLR and storm surge mitigation, says Goodhue, it’s important to take into account the “ripple effects and interconnectivity” of the Island.

The next M.V. Climate Action Plan event will feature environmental consultant Marc Rosenbaum, and will take place on April 6, with April being Energy Transformation Month.

 

4 COMMENTS

  1. Sea level rise eliminating 11% of OB jobs by 2030 is almost laughable. I’d love to see the analysis. Why 2030? Will we have lost 3% by say 2025? How many will be lost this year? Where’s the data?

    • John– I have to agree with you on this one. I don’t see any plausible scenario for such a significant number of jobs to be “impacted” by some random date. . How is that for an ambiguous word ? —- “impacted”— climate change could cause a positive impact to the job market. Look around, already we are seeing high demand for skilled workers with good pay to construct windmills and install solar panels. Research on a wide variety of technologies are pushing our understanding of the physical world as never before.
      Despite what some idiots might say, it is clear that transitioning to a green energy supply will create millions of well paying jobs, not only by the direct installation of sources of power, but by the infrastructure upgrades needed to accommodate new technologies. And it will all be made in AMERICA . — I would have used the word “locally” but I know some people think that buying locally is a ridiculous concept.
      I have a friend who charges his electric truck ( that he converted himself) with power from solar panels on his roof. Talk about not being dependent on foreign fuels.
      But I will not digress, and will wait for the usual suspects to bring politics into this discussion.
      The stakes are high. That “100” year storm will likely occur at increasingly shorter intervals.
      That’s a problem.

  2. Okay I rephrase the question. How many jobs will be “impacted” each year as will head to 2030? What will the impact be, positive or negative? Why is 2030 the year that apparently we will reach these milestones? Show us the data.

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