Martha’s Vineyard is anticipated to see “above normal” temperatures this fall, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The center’s seasonal temperature outlook map indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of above-normal fall temperatures between the months of September and November for the Cape and Islands. Above-normal fall temperatures are forecast for the majority of the U.S., and all of Massachusetts.
Andrew Loconto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Norton office, told The Times the forecasts from the center are “longer-range indicators” for monthly and seasonal temperatures and precipitation. Loconto said Martha’s Vineyard has a 64 percent of above-normal temperatures, and a probability of 3 percent “below-normal” fall temperatures. Data using Vineyard Haven and Edgartown temperatures show that September has an average temperature of 62.5°F, October has an average temperature of 53.3°F, and November has an average temperature of 44.9°F, according to Loconto. This means the seasonal average from September to November is 53.6°F. However, the outlook does not tell how much higher the temperatures will be for the Vineyard.
“That’s the thing about the seasonal outlooks. They tell you the odds,” Loconto said. “It won’t tell you necessarily how much.”
Loconto pointed out that there will be variations in the temperature on a day-to-day and month-to-month basis.
The center also showed a seasonal precipitation outlook map, although it indicated “equal chances” of above-normal or below-normal rainfall. Cape and Islands are missing out on some of the heavier rain right now that Rhode Island is receiving, and September is usually a drier month for Martha’s Vineyard, according to Loconto.
