Vineyarders coming off of a rough, stormy winter might not be getting relief this summer and fall.
National forecasters are predicting an extremely active hurricane season for 2024 — possibly recording-breaking — with nearly double the named storms forecasted compared to the average season.
A new forecast from Colorado State University hurricane researchers reports that hurricanes are also expected to be stronger, and that there’s a higher probability that one will make landfall — not only because they are expecting more storms, but because conditions are less likely to push hurricanes out to sea.
In their latest report released last week, the researchers point to record ocean temperatures and a shift in atmospheric conditions as the reasons for the active season.
The new report forecasts 23 named storms during the 2024 hurricane season, 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes; five of those are expected to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Based on historical data, on average there are about seven hurricanes in a season and about three major hurricanes.
Whether any of those hurricanes do actually make landfall, or if there is a direct hit with Martha’s Vineyard, it’s hard to know.
Peter Neilly — a Vineyard resident and director of weather forecasting sciences, technologies and operations for the Weather Company — says that the science of predicting how many hurricanes there will be in a given season is pretty accurate. But knowing where they will hit isn’t an exact science. “The chances will be a lot higher than a typical summer, but that doesn’t mean we’ll get hit,” Neilly said.
Neilly said that other forecasters will likely be releasing their own hurricane season reports in the coming days and weeks, which will likely mimic the predictions from Colorado.
Current El Niño conditions help explain the Vineyard’s strong winter storms that hit the Island. But its expected to transition to La Niña conditions this summer; meteorologists say that La Nina is favorable for hurricanes.
And Colorado researchers say that water temperatures in the Eastern and Central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. Warm waters in the tropical Atlantic translates to a more dynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
The last major hurricane to make landfall on the Vineyard was Hurricane Bob 33 years ago, where wind gusts reached as high as 111 miles per hour.
You guys should refrain from forecasting the future, don’t you think? Especially months in advance?
That is what weather forecasters do.
It is vital information for farmers.
Best guess beats head in the sand.
Jim you don’t have to believe any of it. You can just ignore
the weather service and everything will be just fine.
I personally think that they are crazy. They are actually saying that
The weather will be warmer in August then it is now.
what a bunch of stupes. How do they know that ?
And what about that eclipse ? They said it would be a “total”
eclipse, but you can ask anybody that was on island on Monday,
and they will tell you they didn’t see no total eclipse.
400 consecutive days of record hot weather in the Atlantic Ocean.
What could possibly be the result of burning fossil fuels?
Oh, yeah, it might cause the oceans to boil.
Let’s see, I’m stocking up on toilet paper
and bottled water. Also nails to nail everything down.
And dried strawberries so I don’t have to cook.
Also, can we give Melly a medal for planting daffodils?
https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-record-warmth-atlantic-ocean-2024-hurricane-season/60454360
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