Maura Martin, co-owner of the beloved Oak Bluffs sandwich shop Mo’s Lunch, got a text from her landlord a year ago that many Islanders dread: “I’m going to have to sell the house, are you interested?”
While surprised, Martin feared this day would come — even though she’s rented the same home for 16 years, she’s still at the whim of an expensive housing market.
“My heart was beating out of my chest,” she recalled.
Martin’s landlord posted the house on Zillow for $802,000 — lower than the local median price of $1.55 million, but still much higher than the state average of $575,000. With thousands of dollars worth of improvements needed, it was more of a risk than an investment to Martin.
After raising two kids in the wall-to-wall carpeted home, she’s on the housing hunt again. She’s posted signs at Mo’s, checked local Facebook groups and listings, consulted her friends — and almost a year later, Martin still hasn’t found a space that checks her minimal requirements: kid-and pet-friendly, and reasonably priced.
Now she’s fully diving into the “Island shuffle,” in a much worse housing environment than she experienced 16 years ago.
“I’m hopeful that something will work out, because we’ve lived [on-Island] for so long,” she said.
Martin, on an Island where a recent study found that every other resident is cost-burdened by housing, is just one local this spring who is finding themselves caught in the Island shuffle — a common phrase used to describe the many residents who jump between rentals, whether a home, a unit, or a backyard tent.
But town select and planning boards, along with affordable housing committees, are launching a new, Island-wide initiative they hope will improve the housing landscape of the Vineyard. Towns are starting what has been coined as the housing production plan (HPP). The idea is to come up with a holistic view of current housing needs and produce an action plan. And they are asking for public input, starting this month.
This iteration of the housing plan is partly a reflection on a past HPP from nine years ago that towns either dropped completely or didn’t fully carry out. This time around, planners say they’re going about it differently.
In 2016, all Island towns started housing production plans through the Martha’s Vineyard Commission (MVC), with consulting from JM Goldson Community Preservation and Planning. Part of the 2016 production plan estimated what turned out to be an understatement of the Island’s current housing woes. Highlighted in an informational insert published in The MV Times, and used to promote the community meetings for the HPP in 2016, were population projections, demographics, and housing cost averages. Included was a predicted rise in population of 12 percent by the year 2035, based on statistics and trends up to that point.
But nine years later, there’s been a total population growth of nearly 25 percent. No plan could have predicted a worldwide pandemic that would bring new year-round residents to the Island, the growth in popularity of short-term rental sites like Airbnb, and the subsequent boom in the market, and a generally more expensive housing landscape across the state.
One statistic that did prove true in the pamphlet was a subhead in large-fonted, looming letters: “If you don’t already own a home here, you probably can’t afford one now,” followed by: “We are losing families and our workforce due to the price of homes and lack of affordable year-round rental units. We are projected to lose more.”
Despite that projection, four out of six town planning boards abandoned the project.
According to those working on the plan at the time, the sentiment was that many of the towns weren’t confident in the specifics of the housing production plan. Some planning board members were worried it would pave the way for multi-unit apartment buildings that would threaten the historic and natural beauty of the Island. They were also concerned that it would cater to younger generations, and leave the rapidly aging Island population behind.
West Tisbury and Oak Bluffs were the only towns that voted to integrate the HPP’s recommendations at the time. But the past iteration was less successful after the population growth predictions fell short, and the housing market hasn’t seen the upward swing the production plan intended for.
Housing experts said the COVID pandemic in 2020 brought an influx of new, year-round residents to the Island — a 25 percent population growth, to be precise — and housing struggles intensified.
According to a recent housing needs assessment, published by the MVC in July 2024, the price of rent has risen to an estimated average of $3,000 — although locals have reported even higher rates in interviews. In 2012 — around the time Martin from Mo’s moved into her current rental — the median cost to purchase a home was $600,000, meaning cost has increased 158 percent since then, to a median of $1.55 million.
This year, the average income needed to purchase a home here is $431,700 a year. The actual median income for locals is $102,348. And that gap is growing. According to the MVC’s housing needs assessment, without new housing supply and zoning changes, prices will become even more competitive, with fewer units available. The commission report also found that 53 percent of renters and 39 percent of homeowners are cost-burdened, many severely cost-burdened. The report called the housing crisis “unprecedented,” largely due to the population boom during the pandemic.
Ewell Hopkins, who was involved in many of those planning discussions from 2016 to ’17 in Oak Bluffs and across the Island, said community input is crucial for creating a more holistic housing plan this time around. And the efficacy is completely reliant on how involved local residents are in their own empowerment of needs.
“A housing production plan cannot be worth its weight in anything if it is not preceded by tremendous public interest,” Hopkins said.
“The production plan is not simply how many units we’re going to strive to build … It’s a facilitated process that brings all stakeholders together and says, What are we trying to accomplish with housing? More importantly, what type of housing would facilitate that goal?”
In a 2017 article about the HPP efforts of the time, published soon after an all-Island planning board decided not to move forward with the project, Chilmark planning board member Peter Cook was quoted as saying, “With any luck we’ll come up with a vision statement further down the process that reflects the reality more.”
According to Laura Silber, the Island housing planner at MVC, that’s exactly what’s happening now, nine years later. “The town governments and residents are entering into this current HPP process with a higher level of awareness and increased local engagement in housing issues, both locally and statewide,” Silber said. She said that bodes well for this time around.
The MVC, local planning, and select and housing boards, with assistance from the Hingham-based Barrett Planning Group, are now moving into the next steps in the creation of an updated housing production plan for each town. Community meetings are happening throughout the month of April.
What’s the housing production plan?
A housing production plan is meant to identify obstacles, find solutions, and create a five-year action plan to better the housing market of a region or town. It’s also a way of aligning town policy and supply with the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Law Chapter 40B, which states all districts in the state must have a minimum of 10 percent of housing supply dedicated to affordable units. All Island towns besides Aquinnah are under the requirements outlined in the 40B chapter.
“There’s an aim to increase the Island’s housing supply, to preserve affordability where it already exists, and to create a plan that conforms to state requirements,” Alexis Lanzillotta, principal planner for the Barrett Planning Group, explained.
Just like the state’s broader plan, the housing production plan starts with a housing needs assessment, which the MVC and Barrett Planning Group completed in 2024. The assessment got the lay of the land, and provided statistics. They also completed a regional zoning analysis in 2024, which outlined ways zoning has impacted the housing crisis, and could help in the future. According to Lanzillotta, the production plan will go even deeper — taking community input into account, and creating a five-year action plan for an improved housing market.
A production plan could provide a framework for zoning changes, building requirements, accessory dwelling unit additions, and more to address needs on the Island.
“The current HPP project builds on the data and analyses provided to the towns in the [housing needs assessment] and the 2024 Island-wide zoning for housing solutions report, and is occurring in the context of efforts to address a statewide housing crisis, including recent passage of the Affordable Homes Act,” Silber said.
Why now?
In August 2024, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey signed the Affordable Homes Act into law, and completed a housing needs assessment and housing production plan, titled “A Home for Everyone,” for the whole state — the first of its kind. The needs assessment showed a lack of housing supply in Massachusetts, and stipulated that 222,000 homes needed to be built in order to provide adequate housing for residents.
The Affordable Homes Act paved the way for a seasonal communities designation, opened up allowances for accessory dwelling units, also known as ADUs, to be built on existing property, and legislated $5.16 billion in spending — money to be given through grants and housing programs to counties and towns. One way to prove housing needs, and qualify for some of those grants, is to create a town-by-town housing production plan.
What’s next?
The Barrett Planning Group and Silber have completed their meetings with the individual planning boards that have outlined the current plan.
“What we’re doing now, the next step, so we’re reviewing your last HPP [housing production plan], and I understand it was not adopted, but we want to still use that as at least a jumping-off point to see what’s changed and what’s been accomplished,” Lanzillotta told the board in the recent Edgartown meeting.
The towns will be holding public meetings to hear community hopes and concerns as their next step of the housing production plan process. Individual meeting dates and information can be found here.
The draft plan is proposed for June, with final updates in July 2025, at which point the select and planning boards must approve it yet again.
In the meantime, locals are still shuffling apartments and reorienting their housing situation to keep up with any changes.
One of those residents, 22-year-old Jaidynn Villari, is a medical assistant at the Martha’s Vineyard Hospital who recently found out she’s pregnant. Alongside her excitement for this new chapter, she found herself grappling with the stress of security. The lease she has right now ends in May, and she’s been looking for a suitable place for her partner and soon-to-be family without luck.
She said she’s moved seven times since arriving on-Island in 2021. “It’s hard to find something here,” Villari said. “Now we have the baby coming, so it’s more of a hassle to find a place year-round.”
Villari clarified it’s not just the moving that makes the seasonal shuffle difficult, but the cost. Having to pay deposits multiple times a year has been a strain — she estimates she’s paid up to $5,000 each time.
“Moving seasonally, you have to pay first, last, and sometimes security. You’re usually paying all three to move into someone’s house. And figure you’re doing that twice a year, it takes a lot of money out of you,” Villari said. “So I don’t see in the foreseeable future it being affordable. I definitely see more obstacles, but I like to be optimistic.”
The meeting dates are as follows, with links to public information from Barrett Planning Group for each one.
Tisbury: April 10, 5-6:30 pm; bit.ly/BP_Tisbury.
Edgartown: April 16, 5:30-7 pm; bit.ly/BP_Edgartown.
Chilmark: April 16, from 6-7:30 pm; bit.ly/BP_Chilmark.
West Tisbury: April 17, from 5-6:30 pm; bit.ly/BP_WestTisbury.
Aquinnah: April 17, from 5:30-7:00 pm; bit.ly/BP_Aquinnah.
Oak Bluffs: April 30, from 6-7:30 pm; bit.ly/BP_OakBluffs
Great recap of the housing situation on Martha’s Vineyard. I would suggest however you use a local real estate office for your average cost estimates
from 2023 as the government source you’ve used is (in a few cases) tens of thousands to a million dollars underestimated.
Maybe the solution is to lobby the legislature to change the 40 B law to reduce the 10% quota of affordable housing. Perhaps some small town in Western Mass with few homes can easily meet that number. Our densely populated down island towns do not have enough available space to develop these projects without making us look like anywhere USA which will kill our main source of income, tourism.
I gotta point out that slide #7 states, “Up to 55% of the Island’s occupied rental units are either subsidized or do not require payment.”
The hpp is a total waste of time and money. We know what we need. We don’t have the funding and land. After 20 years on the ob affordable housing committee it’s obvious we are at a choke point. The hpp hasn’t made a difference in our ability to meet the need.
What should be done?
Who should do it?
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