Vineyard eyes Dorian’s track

Vineyard emergency managers held a conference call with Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) officials Tuesday at 4 pm to discuss Hurricane Dorian. Formerly a Category 5 hurricane, Dorian clobbered the Bahamas, leaving at least seven people dead, and is projected to hug the East Coast as it travels northward, according to published reports. In a joint statement to The Times, the Vineyard’s emergency managers said they are monitoring Dorian.

“Martha’s Vineyard Emergency Managers are keeping a close eye on Hurricane Dorian,” they stated. “There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Please visit the National Hurricane Center website [nhc.noaa.gov]for the latest forecast track and updates. When viewing NHC’s ‘forecast cone,’ remember that it only represents a two-thirds probability of where the center of the storm will be, and does not indicate the projected size of the storm itself. Your local emergency manager will continue to monitor as the NHC forecasts get more refined, and will provide updates as appropriate. For now, visit ready.gov for guidelines and tips on emergency preparedness, and If you haven’t already, please use the Code Red link on your town’s website to receive emergency notifications for this and future events.”

In a situational alert released by MEMA Tuesday, Dorian is anticipated to pass off Nantucket as a Category 1 hurricane. “Hurricane Dorian, a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, is currently located just to the north of Grand Bahama Island, and 105 miles east of Fort Pierce, Fla.,” the alert states. “Current hurricane modeling suggests that over the next 48 to 72 hours, Dorian will begin to turn northward, passing just offshore of the Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coasts, after which it will turn to the northeast and weaken as it travels off the Eastern Seaboard. If Dorian follows its current forecast track, it will pass about 160 miles southeast of Nantucket early Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 85 mph.”

MEMA notes rip currents are among the anticipated dangers thus far: “A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding Dorian’s track as it approaches the New England region, and the forecast may change significantly between now and this weekend. While an offshore track for Dorian is most likely, it should be noted that the average error over the past five years for forecasts at this time range is 140 miles. If Dorian stays close to its forecast track, the following impacts are possible for the New England region: Rip currents and rough surf along ocean-exposed south-facing beaches starting Wednesday, and continuing through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions possible as early as Friday for the Cape and Islands, with high winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. The magnitude of wind and rain impacts will be highly dependent on Dorian’s exact track as it approaches the New England region. If it tracks further to the south and east than forecast, impacts will be reduced.”

National Weather Service meteorologist told Alan Dunham told The Times it’s premature to predict exactly how Dorian will affect the Cape and Islands. “Right now it’s basically too early to tell,” he said. By the time it reaches New England, the course of the hurricane could potentially vary by 200 miles east or west. He also said its strength might have undergone change. He recommended checking National Weather Service forecasts daily for updates.