State could see 172,000 cases during pandemic

No change in Martha’s Vineyard cases as of mid-day.

Gov. Baker says the state could see as many as 172,000 cases of COVID-19. – Gabrielle Mannino

Citing state models, Gov. Charlie Baker estimates the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts will range from 47,000 to 172,000 during the course of pandemic — 0.7 to 2.5 percent of the total population.

Speaking at a press conference Thursday, Baker said Massachusetts is expected to reach its peak hospitalizations between April 10 and April 20. The model also indicates the need for expanded ICU bed capacity by about 500 beds and Baker discussed possible locations for makeshift hospitals, including Joint Base Cape Cod.

Numbers come from a model based on data from Wuhan, China where the virus originated. But Baker said there are some key differences between Wuhan and Massachusetts such as lower population density, social distancing measures that were enacted sooner, and a lower smoking rate.

“We know all models are not perfect, but obviously you need to plan for the worst and at the end of the day hope you do not need to go that far,” the governor said.

On Thursday, the Department of Public Health (DPH) released its daily count of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19, showing 1,228 new cases in Massachusetts for a total confirmed case count of 8,966. Thirty-two new deaths brought the state total to 154. More than 56,000 people in the state have been tested. 

In a first, the number of confirmed cases in Dukes and Nantucket counties have been separated. Previously, the two counties were put in the same column. The DPH count shows only five confirmed cases in Dukes County, showing a lag behind local reports of confirmed cases.

Baker also thanked the Kraft family for using their New England Patriots jet to pick up a shipment of one million N95 masks for healthcare workers, emergency personnel, and first responders. Most of the masks are expected to arrive tonight with more on their way.

The massive shipment of N95 masks was designated as a humanitarian aid mission with the help of the Governor, the Kraft family, the governor of Alaska — where the plane stopped briefly, China’s ambassador out of New York, and the Chinese company Tencent.

“The next three or four weeks are going to be very difficult ones,” Baker said.

The Martha’s Vineyard Hospital continues to test patients with symptoms. As of Thursday at noon, the hospital has collected 117 test samples. There have been 91 negative test results and 18 pending. Eight tests have come back positive. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the Island are at nine following a symptomatic diagnosis on Tuesday. 


  1. I don’t believe any information from the Chinese government. Regarding masks, the surgeon general has stated the masks should be worn by infected individuals, not the general public.

    • Believing Trump or the surgeon general is unwise. Turns out WHO sent a notice to the administration that masks ARE helpful in controlling spread because asymptomatic people do not know they are spreading disease when they speak and breathe in public. Why do you think it’s recommended that we keep at least 6 feet apart? We were told not to wear masks because the incompetent leaders knew we didn’t have enough masks for everyone and had to give them to healthcare people first. We also don’t have enough ventilators and tests. That doesn’t mean people don’t need them. Everyone should wear something over their nose and mouth when they must go to the market or pharmacy.

    • hanley– keep denying– it’s working out really GREAT
      And get yourself updated about the recommendations from the CDC — but you probably don’t believe then either.
      So find yourself some great hoo doo cure on the right wing internet sites– good luck.

    • hanley– keep denying– it’s working out really GREAT
      And get yourself updated about the recommendations from the CDC — but you probably don’t believe them either.
      So find yourself some great hoo doo cure on the right wing internet sites– good luck.

    • Hanley, I wouldn’t recommend wearing a mask if it means taking one away from an essential employee who is bound to come in close contact with the virus. That said, there are many amazing people making masks right now, and something covering our faces is better than nothing. It can help contain sneezes and coughs, lessening our trail of droplets and aerosol particles that others will later touch. It will protect us somewhat (not perfectly, especially if the mask is not medical-grade) from breathing in that stuff from others. And, huge bonus, it makes it so that we can’t accidentally touch our noses or mouths with dirty hands. I’m not saying that masks should give us a false sense of confidence or encouraging anyone to throw the other rules out the window. Constant hand washing, sanitizing, distancing, and only making trips for groceries are still priority. But I believe masks can go a long way in helping. Since this virus is transmitted by the asymptomatic, we should cover up like we have it.

      • Thanks for that intelligent reply. Certainly there is no harm in wearing a mask, so long as it does not foster a false sense of security. But in the hierarchy of effective measures it ranks well below such things as isolation, hand sanitizing and washing, and social distancing.

  2. Wait, China charged us for the masks? The same folks responsible for us needing them?? Are these the reject masks the Dutch turned away? Wouldn’t the money have been better spent with other countries that have textile industries impacted by the global pandemic? Say Egypt, India, etc?

  3. “The Martha’s Vineyard Hospital continues to test patients with symptoms.” That statement is very misleading. Even though a person has symptoms, they won’t necessarily be tested.

    That means I, for example, have to stay secluded from my family for 14 days. if I were tested & learned I’m negative, I could be in the house with my family instead of alone.

    Such a shame this happens.
    – It’s 2020, not 1920
    – we have advanced technologies & brilliant minds


  4. Brian — let’s just agree that we should only use masks made in the U.S No problem , I’m all in — soooo do you think we should wait for a million Americans to die while the “greatest health care system” in the world fails to meet our basic needs, and our industrial capacity ramps up, if they think it’s more profitable to produce masks than sexy bras ?
    And perhaps the dutch have a choice– they do , after all, have a much more developed medical care system than the U.S.

    • Dondon, while I’d like very much to have these masks made in the US it most likely won’t happen because of the proverbial ring in our nose being led around by the globalists. Ultimately we need to put country before profits if there’s going to be a USA in our future. In my earlier post what I was alluding to was the safety & efficacy of these masks quickly sourced from China, if I err, ahh, had to rely on this PPE gear in regards to life safety it’d be like going scuba diving with tanks without a working gage. To pay a regime where the COVID19 originated from 4 million dollars just goes up my backside, & those folks loading the jet were probably laughing behind their masks all the way. The world (read globalists) turns their back on the egregious things that China does in the name of profits & cheap labor (theft of intellectual property, counterfeit products, human rights violations, not halting production of fentanyl, sovereignty issues in the S. China Sea, etc). China needs to lose their most favored nation status, and we need to boycott products made there. Give countries trade that aren’t trying to dismantle the USA from the inside out was what I was trying to say. EOR.

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