U.S. Rep. Bill Keating, D-Bourne, who represents the Massachusetts 9th District, including Martha’s Vineyard, described the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a historic turning point in the clash between democracy and authoritarianism.
In an interview with The Times hours before President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, Keating made it clear the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has come together on the issue with surprising swiftness and “solidarity,” and that several neutral countries have shed their neutrality, with some going so far as to entertain joining NATO. Keating said Russian President Vladimir Putin misjudged his fortunes of war in Ukraine, and as a result is becoming increasingly brutal in his tactics by targeting civilians and using unethical weaponry like cluster bombs and thermobaric projectiles, so-called “vacuum bombs.”
Americans should understand the crisis in Ukraine is not a short-term problem, and should steel themselves for a protracted struggle that will have some economic impacts on things like gasoline, Keating said. While the U.S. and NATO are taking pains to avoid clashing with Russia in direct military conflict, the U.S., Europe, and nations elsewhere have heavily sanctioned Russia. NATO and the U.S. have also supplied the Ukrainians with ammunition and weapons like Javelin antitank missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles.The Russian endgame remains unclear, Keating said. What Putin’s war machine has done thus far Keating described as “horrific,” and akin to war crimes.
“I thought that Putin believed he’d be able to, you know, just in the matter of a few days, go in, topple the government, and not meet with resistance,” Keating said. “And in some perverse misreading, thought there was a significant population that would support their taking control. That’s clearly not the case.”
Despite miscalculating how the invasion would go, Keating said, he believes Putin put years of planning into the offensive, and when it would happen. He cited the $600 billion in reserves Putin built up to offset sanctions, upcoming elections in France, a change of government in Germany, and “fatigue in the U.S. and other countries after Afghanistan and the pandemic” as all translating into an “opportune time” for him to move.
“He was wrong … His actions have brought NATO together beyond what anybody contemplated in terms of cohesiveness,” the congressman said. Keating said Sweden, which previously “sat out World War II,” and Switzerland, “a country whose neutrality is in its constitution,” have each “taken sides.” “In Asia, we’re seeing countries like Japan, we’re seeing Singapore, Taiwan, and a growing number of countries that will ban exports in terms of high-tech equipment — semiconductors, chips, things that they need and they can’t get by themselves. They don’t have that capability. And that will further affect their economy. So the vise of these sanctions is closing very quickly with its initial impact. The ruble is worth a cent now.”
Keating said he thinks Putin holds a “key” belief that in democratic countries, steeper gasoline or heating costs will cause people to pressure their leaders “to back off and say this cause isn’t important enough.” Conversely, Keating said, Putin doesn’t face such a threat “despite over a thousand people being imprisoned already in his own country, because it’s a one-person-rule and it’s an authoritarian regime that’s not answerable to people. So the real test will be with the West and our allies throughout the world — we’re doing this now, will we continue this effort six months from now? Will we continue this effort a year from now? And he’s counting on the long game, and people just not caring enough. But I think he’s been shocked with the realization that people now realize that this is a turning point in history.”
At the recent Munich Security Conference (before the invasion), where Keating met privately with the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, Keating said he found the mayor full of “concern and anxiousness” for his people. Keating described the “overarching statement” of the conference to be “that we’ve been moving to a collision between authoritarian governments like China,” that there has been a “backsiding of democratic countries and democracies, and that occurred before this, but this is the turning point of that contest, and if we are successful, then you’re going to see other countries take this as their pathway forward.”
Keating said the events in Ukraine may herald something of a different scope than the Cold War.
“The scope is different,” he said, “the stakes are different, and the way it’s being approached, not just militarily but economically, is different.”
“Even though a few weeks from now, Putin could be claiming victory for toppling the government, perhaps — hope not, but he’s on that path, and he has committed enough resources — I think the courage of the Ukrainian people and their ability to have this bravery convey not only within their own country but to inspire other countries is another aspect that just clearly Putin miscalculated on, and how he gets out of this is a concern. You know, I think there’s great assurity that over time this will be one of the colossal mistakes that a leader has made. But the key term there is over time. We have no idea how long this struggle of democracy versus authoritarian rule will last. It could be years. And so people have to be aware of that.”
As to whether Ukraine will be enough of a debacle for Putin to step down, Keating was unsure.
“He’s reputed to be the richest man in the world,” Keating said. “I’m sure he’s taken a lot of that wealth and hidden it, put it in places it’s difficult for people to secure or reclaim. Where he’s going, and what kind of outcome — we can only hope that there’s some pressure domestically brought to bear on him. There’s some understanding long-range that this is not going the way he wanted it to, and he’ll seek some kind of resolution. But our intelligence and his actions right now don’t indicate he’s there. But you know, there’s always hope that he’ll understand that, but this is really as serious as it gets.”
NATO will not come to the defense of Ukraine and would unlikely do so even if Ukraine were in NATO. Gas prices would come down if the US were allowed to pump and frack and go offshore like they did a couple of years ago. Oil would go to 50 dollars and hurt Putin big time. That is the only weapon that will make much difference in Putin’s resolve save a revolution inside of Russia. ”The West fell into a hypnotic trance worshiping teenager Greta and Putin made his move.”
You’re welcome to resubmit, maybe get one thing correct the second try.
Ok Neil I will try. Lets increase opportunities for BLT’s by passing the Equality ACT and lets focus on putting more men into women’s sports. That what Kamala told us yesterday when Putin seized the nuclear plant.
Mr Thomas you are welcome to tell me where I have it wrong rather than issue a vacuous non sequitur.
Gas and oil prices, Putin’s internal policies, the GOP’s obsession with Greta, and why Putin made his move when he did. Bad inclusion by you, equality really was contributory to Putin’s actions. Are you saying America should conform to Putin’s agenda to appease him? We could but Moldova would still be the likely next target.
Andy– What do you have wrong, you ask—
Let me try to explain it to you. — Read carefully, and forget what you think about this issue–I have found the facts….
I first picked Al Jazeera as a source, because I know you won’t read anything from reliable news sources in the U.S.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia
In case you don’t bother to read it or do the math, I will summarize;
The U.S, imports about 11 billion gallons of petro products from Russia every year.
Then I picked the U,S department of energy as a source for how much fuel is wasted while vehicles idle, because I know how much you trust actual verifiable facts.
https://www.stealth-power.com/blog/idling-vehicles-waste-six-billion-gallons-of-fuel-a-year
In case you don’t to bother reading this one either, I will summarize;
6 billion gallons. —-more than 1/2 of all the oil we get from Russia is wasted by idling vehicles. If the ignoramus’s in this country would just turn their vehicles off rather than let them idle while going into gun shops and beauty salons, we could eliminate half of our imports of Russian oil.
But we still have 5 billion gallons to make up
so from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-emissions/u-s-vehicle-fleet-fuel-efficiency-fell-in-2019-to-24-9-mpg-epa-idUSKBN29B1YQ
And again from the department of energy:
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10315.
In case you don’t to bother reading either one of these I will summarize:
Americans drive 3 trillion miles a year, and have an average fuel efficiency of about 25 mpg.
If the fuel efficiency was raised to 26 mpg, it would save 4.6 billion gallons of fuel a year.
So the point is, if we turned our cars off when not in use and raised fuel efficiency by 1 mile per gallon, we could completely dis the Russians, reduce fuel cost by decreasing demand, and put about $35 billion dollars per year into the pockets of Americans instead of Putin’s.
Past comments from you are clear that you oppose any of these conservation methods.
Why are you against them ?
Let me answer for you–
You are wrong.
Keller believes one can stop Putin aggression by simply not idling cars. Your obsession with idling has been duly noted.
Andy– again, you are twisting what I said.
I said nothing of the sort.
You however, think that a teenager named Greta is responsible for this war.
And of course if we all pray hard enough it will cause Putin to repent and withdraw his troops.
Your delusions are duly noted.
But back to what I actually said;
I was addressing the concerns of people who think if the price of gas rises by 20 cents it will cause them great pain and suffering, and offered a solution as to how to prevent that.
Simple economics 101– reduce demand, reduce cost.
At this point every one of those ignoramuses’ idling their vehicles is putting money directly into the Russian military coffer. I appeal to rational citizens to ask these unaware people to turn their vehicle off when going into a store. You can do it– most will comply if you ask nicely.
I support the idea of not importing any Russian petroleum products– I don’t really care if gas hits $10 a gallon. I’ll deal with it.
But if you are one of those people who don’t want to see $10 a gallon gas, stop wasting it.
And for sure, I do not think that using less gas will stop the war anymore than I think a teenager from Sweden started it.
No Keller I do not think Greta is responsible for this war. I think a teenager put much of the west into a hypnotic trance about the use of fossil fuels and ranted at the UN ”how dare you”. Manipulated by her parents to gain fame. As for you not caring about 10 dollar gas, that fine but millions of people would be economically disadvantaged and care very much.
Andy– given that you know all about the Russians because you were born in the Soviet Union, how do you propose to stop this?
If you don’t think Greta is responsible for this war, why did you say she was ?
You criticize Harris for tweeting about something other than the war, then 3 days later you criticize her for going to Poland to do something about it.
Must be tough to hate so much.
Keller, even the most liberal on MV except you of course don’t believe a Kamala trip to Poland can do anything. Biden is courting Venezuela and Saudi for oil when he doesn’t ask domestic producers or Canada. Venezuela can give us oil in 8 months in exchange for dropping sanctions while US shale producers can give it to us twice as fast. Venezuela an ally of Putin who drill only because of him and his technology after all out oil corporations left. Can you imagine dropping sanctions on Venezuela. Ukraine can end this today if they recognize Crimea as Russian, pledge not to join NATO, and allow Luhansk and Donetsk to be independent. Dont worry, Kamala will fix it. Now the usual suspect will accuse me of targeting a black female.
Quoting Andrew: “Ukraine can end this today if they recognize Crimea as Russian, pledge not to join NATO, and allow Luhansk and Donetsk to be independent.”
That means Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets everything he wants. Disclaimer: Luhansk and Donetsk will have puppet governments beholden to Putin.
Andy– I am not naïve enough to think a trip by Harris to Poland will stop the war. But you are critical of her no matter what she does.
She goes to Selma on the anniversary of bloody Sunday, and you criticize her for not focusing on the war. Then she focuses on the war, goes to Poland to meet with world leaders and you say she will be ineffective.
Exactly what do you want her to do ?
Your last line predicting what someone will accuse you of says it all. It’s quite apparent that you have been targeting her since the day she was selected to run for V.P No one here really wonders why you do that.
It’s very important for Fox News devotees to mention here that VP Harris sent out a tweet calling for action on the Equality Act. How dare this female VPOTUS of mixed race think about anything except the Russian invasion? “This is what they think about” a Fox newscaster said. They. Get it? I mean, how DARE she?
When certain people don’t agree that Black lives do matter, they do what they can to denigrate the idea, and along with it, the Equality Act. “BLT’s” are a sandwich, and an unkosher one at that, but let’s wait to hear how bringing up BLM (even if BLT was a typo) is important to mention here in a Ukraine discussion in the Martha’s Vineyard Times, except that to Fox News and its worshippers, the Vice President of the United States is so uppity that she dared think about the Equality Act now, of all times, in one Tweet. Clashing ideas between democracy and authoritarianism are paramount today. We know which side the systemically racist ideas always fall on. Always.
Jackie–Her mistake was that she didn’t send her text while playing golf or sitting on a toilet.
As for the “BLT” reference– It seems to be a new way for homophobes to mock the LGBTQ community– They have a hard time remembering all those letters in the proper order, so BLT is easier to remember, and they won’t embarrass themselves (as if that’s possible) by mixing up the letters of forgetting them– As our former president said, it’s really hard to remember 5 things in the proper order. You have to be a genius to consistently do it, and quite frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of geniuses that watch fox news.
Just curious what news do you watch and rely on ?
From your awkward and misleading posts I think I already know your response.
Eddie what news source do you watch and rely on?
From your comment ,
I think it is the one that tells you what you want to be the truth.
Why watch any other?
Well, Andrew, Hitler only wanted the Sudetenland and then he’d be satisfied- Poland had nothing to worry about.
Mr Keane, Putin laments the loss of the Soviet Union and he wants Ukraine. I do not believe he will start a war over Poland or the Baltics or the “”Stan’s””. I could be wrong but I don’t think the Hitler comparison is valid.
I’m hoping Mr Keane is being facetious.
Hitler wanted/needed the Caucasus for its mineral resources. I’ve read he wants the Baltics, because they were part of the Soviet Union and for the open water access. As for the Balkins, those have always been a concern for Russia, the Bosphorus is the only water route out of the Black Sea.
If Putin comes out strong from the Ukraine, he’ll try for all the marbles.
Andy– you say “”I could be wrong”
That’s pretty scary–
Today I saw a truck with a “F” Joe Biden bumper sticker parked outside a local coffee shop. The driver left the truck running while going into the store. He came out with a $10.00 pack of cigarettes, a $2.50 cup of coffee and a hand full of lottery tickets. Let’s not pretend these people are actually concerned about the price of gas.
Biden haters aren’t known for their reasoning or deep intelligence.
Keller wants to stop idling and Cooper wants to pay more for gas and Harris is going to Poland to understand the root cause of all this. This formulation of course will stop Putin.
Maybe but if she wants to improve her abysmal.popularity she should stop in Ukraine instead, learn something,….. anything…….. and make herself marginally useful. You think ?
Please pause on this. Talking with Poland may accomplish nothing. Except it tells Poland and the World we’re talking with and listening to Poland. And Poland may decide, “America is respecting us by meeting. Let’s share knowledge we were going to hold.”
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