Report quantifies a growing economic divide

By
Thomas Maxwell and Sam Houghton
-
21

Updated, Oct. 18

A significant increase in higher-wage earners on the Vineyard coupled with an increase in short-term rentals is displacing some Island residents, and the Vineyard is nearly 3,000 affordable housing units short of what is needed.

Those are some of the takeaways of the Martha’s Vineyard Commission’s recently released housing needs assessment. 

While the latest data underscore what Islanders likely already know anecdotally — that the pandemic significantly exacerbated existing housing issues, drove up prices, increased the demand for rental units, and pushed more people into housing insecurity — the report offers hard data that show how the population has changed. 

For example, residents making more than $200,000 a year represented nearly 20 percent of the Island in 2022 — the year data were collected for the report. That’s up from just 4 percent from 10 years earlier. The median income also shot up considerably over those 10 years, from roughly $60,000 to $90,000.
The assessment, which relies heavily on Census data, also reports that more than one in every three year-round Islanders is considered cost-burdened by housing costs, and more are being forced to live together in shared spaces.

The recent study — published by the commission in September — is an update from previous housing needs assessments. But this is the first in the series released after the pandemic. 

Study authors say the assessment provides data points that will help the Island out of the housing crisis.

“The shift in income is really alarming,” said Laura Silber, Island housing housing planner with the commission. “This really illustrates and quantifies why we are seeing such a workforce shortage in so many critical sectors of the Island.

“Island residents and town governments knew anecdotally what was happening with the housing situation, but we really needed the data,” Silber continued. “This quantifies through hard data what is actually happening, and provides a powerful tool to highlight our needs locally and to target robust solutions.” 

Silber will help lead a virtual presentation on the report on Wednesday, Oct. 23, at 6:30 pm that is open to the public. State Sen. Julian Cyr will be present for the community briefing as well. A Zoom link will be available on the MVC’s website.

Wednesday’s meeting will also be geared to solutions. The housing needs assessment offers some strategies to help spur the development of housing. Many of the recommendations include updating local zoning bylaws. The commission is also working on updating a report from a decade ago that reviewed possible amendments to all six towns’ zoning regulations.

Overall, the commission has a goal of providing a full range of housing options by increasing the number of affordable housing units, prioritizing residents with the greatest need, and emphasizing the creation of affordable rental units. 

According to the housing needs report, the number of renter-occupied units in Dukes County increased about 33 percent between 2012 and 2022 to 1,614 units, but that still represents less than 10 percent of the overall Island housing inventory. During the same time period, the number of registered Short Term Rentals grew to represent over 20 percent of the overall housing inventory, to 3,999 units.

Overall Island housing stock increased only 2.8 percent between 2012 and 2022, while population increased by 24%.

Just 39 percent of housing on-Island is occupied throughout the year. That’s up from 34 percent in 2012. But, the report states, these numbers should be viewed in the context of escalating housing costs, and the fact that higher-income households have become more prominent. Year-round housing stock increased 19 percent in that time, while the population grew 24 percent. Short-term rentals continued to increase, eating up finite Island real estate available to year-round residents, especially at lower income levels.

Some of the more revealing stats in the report highlight the Island’s shift to an even higher-income population over the past 10 years.

“The percentages of year-round households at most income levels below $150,000 declined between 2012 and 2022,” the report states, “accompanied by striking increases in those earning above $150,000.” The estimated percentage of households earning $150,000–$199,999 doubled to 11 percent, and those making more than $200,000 quadrupled, to 19 percent of year-round households. 

The estimated median household income for Dukes County, meanwhile, increased 41 percent between 2012 and 2022, from $63,896 to $93,225. 

“Again, the increase was fueled largely by new residents with higher incomes who could afford dramatically increasing housing costs,” the report states. 

Meanwhile, lower-income households — especially those earning less than $50,000 — are dwindling. In 2012, an estimated 12.6 percent of Islanders earned $50,000 or less; today that number is just 5.5 percent. 

The report notes that many of these residents are critical to the Island’s infrastructure and tourism economy, and provide a range of year-round services, like municipal government and public safety. 

To highlight the increase in housing insecurity, the report notes that household sizes are getting larger, reflecting increased density as people are forced to share living spaces. Between 2012 and 2022, the average household size in rental units grew by 9.5 percent, from 2.49 to 2.73 people. Owner-occupied household size, meanwhile, increased by 2.7 percent. 

The report finds that out of an estimated 6,899 households on the Island, about 40 percent, or 2,775 year-round Island households, experienced cost burdens from spending 30 percent or more of their income on housing. Year-round homeowners with cost burdens were distributed among a wider range of incomes than renters, with 200 homeowners with incomes less than $20,000. For some of these homeowners, qualifying for more affordable housing can be a challenge if they own significant equity in their home. 

The commission estimates a shortfall of at least 2,775 affordable housing units: 657 rental units, and 2,118 owner units. 

“We cannot just build our way out of this, the numbers are simply too big,” said Silber. “But we can look to successful strategies deployed in the Western ski towns, and closer to home on Nantucket and in Provincetown, as well as homegrown our own strategies to secure and expand existing year-round inventory so that it remains available for working Islanders.

“Otherwise, this study shows us clearly we are destined to lose it into the upper end of the market.  The new tools in the Seasonal Communities Designation provided to us in the Affordable Homes Act are an essential beginning — it’s up to us as a community to dig in and implement them,” Silber added.

The report makes a series of recommendations similar to those made in the past, including overcoming restrictive zoning to enable greater densities and addressing environmental challenges caused by an increasing population, like excess nitrogen in Island ponds. Regulatory changes will also be needed, such as ways to support public-sector workers critical to the Island. 

Also recommended is looking to local governments to hire more professional help to find solutions to the housing crisis. Currently no town has a dedicated affordable housing administrator, similar to the commission’s Island housing planner position. 

A recurring recommendation is to continue to respond to development opportunities when the opportunity presents itself with an “eye toward adaptive re-use of previously developed properties.”

Especially with rising production costs and inflation, building affordable homes is a challenge, and the report suggests that Island towns find ways to ease restrictive zoning that make it difficult to obtain site control and sufficient densities to make housing feasible. 

If current trends continue, the report finds, year-round rentals at all income levels, including market rate, will continue to diminish as short-term rentals continue to increase. 

Data collection

Much of the MVC’s study was based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s “American Community Survey,” which provides annual data estimates related to social, economic, housing, and demographic characteristics for particular areas. Unlike the 10-year Census, it is based on survey responses over the previous five years. The 2022 ACS five-year estimates, for example, are based on the years 2017–21.

The story was updated to more accurately reflect the increase in housing production on the Island compared to the population increase.

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21 COMMENTS

  1. It seems to me all of these numbers are very positive for islanders. Income has significantly increased, the number of year round rentals has increased, the number of islanders making less than 50K has decreased, etc. These statistics mean we’re working harder and it’s paying off. Very good news for all.

      • Was post-Covid supply-chain influenced inflation unique to America?
        I thought it was essentially a worldwide event….
        do you assign that blame to Biden as well ?

      • Biden even gets blamed for hurricanes now. Inflation was a worldwide phenomenon. Can you blame Biden for inflation in Istanbul? If you wear a red hat you will.

        • Mark –Biden gets blamed for wars he had nothing to do
          with, blamed for ending a war that 3 former presidents
          couldn’t — even though one of those former presidents
          denied there actually was a war going on. He is blamed
          for the price of gas, unemployment, the crime rate
          the “failing” cities and whatever the brainwashed indoctrinated
          red hatted cultish fools choose to believe.
          All this despite the fact that gas is ridiculously
          cheap,—the U.S is producing more gas and oil than any
          country at any time in history, —
          crime is down 30 % in the last 3 years,
          inflation is at less than 2 1/2 %, unemployment is at historically
          low levels, fentanyl deaths have
          been dropping dramatically, FEMA is doing a heck of a job,
          and no “illegals” are eating the pets of the people who live
          wherever town some sociopath decides to lie about.
          One fool here even advised us to google about burning firewood
          to find out how horrible it is. I did that, and got this ;
          “Burning that wood for heat speeds up the process, he said, but it’s carbon neutral, as long as it’s managed in a way that allows for new growth and new opportunities for carbon absorption.” and this;
          “if someone’s living in a rural area and they have a stand of trees on their land or close by and available, there’s no environmental reason not to use that wood as a source of energy,”
          https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/11/09/climate-curious-is-burning-wood-for-heat-carbon-neutral
          I could put up hundreds of other articles that say the same thing,
          but I know I would be criticized for posting something that is
          actually true. Some people don’t like that or can’t handle the truth.
          One person has even gone so far as to attribute my motivations
          to actually finding out what the actual facts are on any given topic
          to trying to get the attention of my dead mother. Nothing
          offensive about dragging someone’s dead mother into
          the conversation, I guess.

          They feel more comfortable feeding at the troth of lies that
          allows them comfort with no effort. It’s very easy to just blame
          “others” for anything and everything
          that might be wrong with their “miserable” lives.
          It worked very well in Europe in the 1930’s for an aspiring sociopath.
          Why not here ?

      • If inflation was caused by Biden’s policies, wouldn’t inflation continue to be high now (it’s now down to 2.4%)? Yes there was inflation, but as Mike said, that was due to the economic disruption from the COVID shutdown, and a lot of pent up demand.

  2. These income numbers for 2022 make no sense. Housing deficiencies I can believe very easily, but a median income for Duke’s County over $93K is ridiculous on its face.

    • What has your research shown.
      93k on the Island does not go very far.
      Four years to buy a dump.
      Some pay that much to their immigrant landscapers.
      Does your household take in 93k?
      Is it tight?

      • So, on the “landscapers”….
        Are you Native American ?
        Or maybe your ancestors were on the Nina, the Pinta or the Santa Maria ?
        If not, you descend from a “immigrant”.
        Wonder if your words would make them proud.

  3. John Axel, what do you mean the number of year round rentals have increased. Article says its a shortfall. Look in this week’s Times or Gazette and tell me how many year round rentals are listed.

  4. I hope not too much money was spent on a study of the growing economic divide on MV. It’s pretty obvious even without a college degree.

  5. Is there any discussion about the litigious nature of year round rentals being a barrier to affordable housing? Why would anyone rent their house if it is likely to become a squatting situation. We have enough houses here and 3,000 more strikes me as a bad idea based on our wastewater issues alone.

    • Fred, waste water 💦 can be processed and filtered. Take the savings from solar and wind energy and build desalination and waste water processing.

  6. I hate to be the one to say it, but nobody is entitled to live in one of the most desirable locations in the world. If you only make $50k/yr, maybe its time to be realistic about living in a place where lunch will run you $30.
    This whole “people who live on the island and make good money are evil” argument is nonsense. The summer people are the reason the winter people have jobs… We need to realize and accept that! The Vineyard is on par with Nantucket, The Hamptons, Beverly Hills, etc. The people who work in those places don’t live there if they cant afford it… they commute, just like everywhere else. The fact that its an island doesn’t change that fact of life.

  8. I’m sure it’s in extremely bad taste for this washashore to agree with JD Naron, but here’s the thing: not everyone who wants to live here can. (I was extremely lucky to come here when the real estate prices were not obscene, as they are today.) Perhaps more effort by the employers hiring personnel to get together to offer housing to their employees; perhaps more effort by the town to find or offer housing to town employees … perhaps we could stop the NIMBY stuff that goes on and exclusionary zoning … perhaps not every dwelling needs to be referred to the MVC for building or demolishing, ditto the towns’ “historic commissions.”

  9. Jonathan, inflation spiral was initially caused by Trump adding tariffs. Covid complications added to what Trump did.
    And you are right: Increased salaries and latent demand meant that people were spending even as prices increased. Prices will go down when people choose to not spend.

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