The Trump administration’s tariffs have driven up some prices for goods imported from abroad. It’s a good thing that our Thanksgiving dinners typically include food items produced in the U.S. The thing to do is to buy local.
Say you may want a glass of wine to go with the holiday dinner. Tariffs on imported French wine are currently set at 20 percent, but so far, most companies have paid the tariff and not raised prices. Until recently. According to Forbes, these companies are now starting to pass along the increased cost due to tariffs to their consumers.
The answer: Buy domestically produced wine, like those from California or New York State. Every state in the Union today in fact has at least one wine producer, so there are plenty of choices.
But what about turkey? Purdue University’s College of Agriculture has studied historical prices of Thanksgiving dinner costs, and “predicts an average retail price of approximately $2.05 per pound in November for this Thanksgiving season, which is 25 percent higher than a year ago. This means that a typical 15-pound turkey could cost around $31.”
How can this be, if turkeys are not subject to the government’s tariff rates? Well, again according to Purdue, it is the impact of avian flu, which has rapidly spread throughout the country, leading to thousands of birds being wiped out. And these include the much-loved Thanksgiving turkey.
Would it be a good idea to substitute turkey with, say, roast beef? Maybe not: Forbes again tells us that it has found that beef prices have risen some “14.7 percent over the past year, nearly five times the overall food-at-home inflation rate.” According to Fox Business, this is because of severe drought in cattle country, so consumers can expect to see higher prices. Cattle ranchers have had to reduce the size of their herds, which directly affects those looking for something other than turkey for Thanksgiving dinner.
As for the tariffs, they may or may not be with us for long. We don’t really know because their future now rests in the Supreme Court (Learning Resources, Inc v. Trump). The justices only agreed to hear this case this past September, so we can expect an early decision, perhaps by Christmas.
On Nov. 5, the court heard oral arguments concerning the Trump administration’s use of a federal law to justify the president’s authority to impose tariffs on every country in the world. The president included tariffs on the Heard and McDonald islands, where only penguins and seals live, leading the Australian trade minister to quip, “Poor old penguins, I don’t know what they did to Trump.”
The fact is that several of the justices seemed very skeptical of the president’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to set tariffs. They questioned the government lawyer, Solicitor General D. John Sauer (who also served as Trump’s personal lawyer) about the extent of the so-called emergency. The act permits the president to regulate commerce in the face of an “unusual or extraordinary” national security threat, such as a foreign invasion. The Trump administration initially based its reasoning on the trade deficit, but then added the need to stop illegal drugs like fentanyl from entering the U.S. The justices, including many of the conservative ones, seemed doubtful.
The justices also wanted to know how a law that did not contain the word “tariff” or anything close to it could be used to slap tariffs on imported goods. Many of the conservative justices have long argued that the text of a law, and nothing else, is what they should review. In other words, the law’s words are the most important aspect, not what Congress intended to achieve.
Moreover, the justices demanded to know the difference between a regulatory tariff (one designed to force a foreign country to reduce its own tariffs) versus a revenue-raising tariff (one that brings a lot of money into federal coffers). President Trump has repeatedly said that the tariffs have brought in billions of deficit-reducing dollars, which make it appear the tariffs are designed to increase revenue. But the IEEPA does not permit the U.S. to collect money via tariffs during a national emergency.
And the justices wanted to know whether the government thought the tariffs were really a tax on Americans. Fortune magazine says it is “a sales tax in disguise.” But only Congress, not the president, can impose taxes on Americans.
If the president loses his case before the Supreme Court, he will find other legal instruments to impose tariffs. So where does this leave us with Thanksgiving dinner? Again, buy local, but be prepared to spend more than last year.
Jack Fruchtman, who lives in Aquinnah, like everyone enjoys the Thanksgiving holiday.
According to this essay, tariffs (code for Trump), drought, smaller herds, and avian flu all are to blame for higher costs for our Thanksgiving dinners. At least no one is (yet) blaming Zionism, code for you-know-who.
Walmart turkeys are 0.97 cents per lb and regular grocery stores approx $1.49lb . Trump is not responsible for beef prices, as cattle herds are at their lowest level in 50 years. Plenty of good wine in the USA although I wont buy from California. Your tariff argument is weak.
What are the good Red state wines?
Will you be buying a Walmart turkey?
Walmart has turkey at $12 a pound.
Tariffs are anti-capitalist (pro communist?).
Jack Fruchtman tries to pin the cost of Thanksgiving dinner on Trump-era tariffs, but the connections he draws aren’t just flimsy — they’re unrelated to the reality of what’s driving food prices in 2025.
Turkey isn’t expensive because of tariff policy; it’s expensive because avian flu wiped out millions of birds nationwide. Beef isn’t rising because of Washington politics; it’s rising because cattle herds are at their smallest levels in half a century thanks to drought.
These are basic supply shocks, not tariff consequences.
Meanwhile, shoppers can easily find turkeys for under a dollar a pound at Walmart or around $1.49 at regular grocery stores, exactly as Andrew Engelman pointed out.
If tariffs were the big villain here, we’d see price spikes across imported food categories. We aren’t. Domestic wine prices remain stable. Overall food-at-home inflation is far lower than it was two years ago.
Instead of acknowledging these straightforward causes, the essay drags readers into a legal detour about the Supreme Court and presidential authority — none of which explains why a turkey costs what it does this week.
Thanksgiving inflation isn’t a tariff story. It’s a supply story, and no amount of hand-waving changes that.
Just a point about buying local– a fresh organic 23 pound turkey from Morning Flory farm is nearly $200 — yes, two zeros there. Of course, only people with TDS would blame trump for the cost of anything, if it is going up. He is the great leader, after all, and has only had 10 months to reverse the crippled economy that he inherited from the Biden administration. Let’s give him a break– he gave $20 billion to Argentina and has struck a deal to import cheap beef from them that will clearly help American cattle ranchers– “soon”. He has had great success in ending a bunch of wars that never existed (except the Russian invasion of Ukraine of course.) He has only been able to play golf 72 days so far this term, and hasn’t golfed in more than 2 weeks– and that has only cost the taxpayer about $100 million. https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ Besides, all those numbers about inflation and jobs or whatever are “fake” and the people who report them should be fired if they haven’t already been and replaced with true “patriots”. trump says grocery prices are down, so they are down. Any questions ?
Don, you’re trying to turn a point about supply-driven food prices into a political rant, but none of it explains what’s driving Thanksgiving costs.
Turkey prices are higher because avian flu wiped out millions of birds nationwide, shrinking supply long before anyone’s politics got involved. Beef prices are up because drought pushed cattle herds to 50-year lows after ranchers spent several seasons thinning their stock. These are real supply shocks supported by USDA and industry data, not partisan talking points.
Yes, a $200 farm-raised turkey exists. So does a turkey at Walmart priced at $0.97/lb. A boutique purchase doesn’t define the national market any more than a high-end bottle of wine defines grocery-store prices.
Your detour into Argentina, golf days, and “fake numbers” doesn’t change the core reality: weather, disease, and herd reductions are the dominant forces behind 2025 holiday food prices, not tariff policy and not whoever occupies the Oval Office. Economists across the spectrum agree.
You don’t have to like Trump — I didn’t vote for him — but blaming him for drought and avian flu doesn’t strengthen an argument. It dodges the truth, and arguments built on dodging the truth collapse immediately.
Part of the article was about “buying local”. but the comments here reflect the costs of turkeys that are anything but local. I agree with you about some of the reasons for higher prices, and agree that the president has little to do with the price of most things. But try to convince trump’s base that the high cost of eggs last year was the result of bird flu or weather conditions. trump himself directly blamed Biden for that , and never once mentioned bird flu Also try to convince them that the high price of gas a couple of years ago was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine rather than the incompetence of “sleepy Joe”. If we are going to blame a democratic president for the high cost of eggs, we can blame a republican president for the high cost of turkeys or beef. And for Andy– we don’t call trump “the nodfather” for nothing https://www.thelist.com/2024556/donald-trump-new-nickname-falling-asleep-oval-office-gavin-newsom/
Don, your “anything but local” line actually reinforces the point I made. Local turkeys cost more because they’re raised in small batches with higher per-bird expenses. National producers sell for less because they operate at scale. That difference is predictable and has nothing to do with presidents, tariffs, or political narratives. It’s basic supply economics, not political theater.
The article mentioned buying local, but it also discussed Thanksgiving prices broadly. Pointing to supermarket prices is completely relevant because that’s where most families shop.
And the reasons those supermarket prices rose are the same reasons small-farm prices rose: avian flu losses, elevated feed costs, processing pressures, and drought-driven herd reductions. These are well-documented supply shocks confirmed by USDA data, not partisan interpretations or convenient talking points.
Your reply shifts the discussion to Trump’s base, gas prices from years ago, and a link about a nickname. None of that explains why turkeys or beef cost what they do in 2025, and none of it contradicts the supply-side causes you already acknowledged.
Dragging in unrelated political grievances doesn’t strengthen your argument; it simply replaces facts with noise. If the goal is clarity, sticking to actual evidence would help all of us. Weather, disease, and herd reductions drove these prices. Everything else is distraction.
Andrew is still correct. Yesterday, Stop & Shop in Edgartown was selling 16-pound turkeys for the sale price of $13. Others were in the $20 range. Even locally, a $200 bird is an extreme outlier.
That’s a Morning Glory problem, not a political problem.
Prices aside, it’s been great to see so many donating their time and money to ensure Islamders have what they need for supper. I hope everyone who celebrates has a happy, peaceful day.
If you paid 200 bucks for a 23 lb turkey you paid 9 bucks per pound and that is 8 dollars more per lb than any grocery store. Trump did not give 20 billion to Argentina it is a loan and we make money on it. Beef imports from Argentina are 2.1 percent of our beef needs and increased supply lowers prices a bit. That is a good thing because Cattle ranchers are raising the prices because they can. He actually has intervened in several wars around the globe and stopped them. One can read about it. Facts are inconvenient as Murray Harvey suggests correctly. As for golf, one can notice that Trump whatever one thinks of him is indefatigable and sleeps around 5 hours per night and never on the job. MY gas is 2.69 per gallon right now and Peets Keurig cups are often on sale at 8.99 down from 12 as is Starbucks at 7.99 down from 11 bucks.
Turkeys OFF ISLAND mostly get sold at big losses for a supermarket chain its in the million or tens of millions of dollars That happens everywhere as for beef read below
https://www.drovers.com/markets/profit-tracker/beef-profit-tracker-choice-steer-bids-continue-weaken
Look who is making all the money I have been in the meat industry for a long time 25 years at Bjs wholesale I grew up on marthas Vineyard my grandfather owner Tisbury Turkey farm in the 50’s and 60’s
Something to think about as the comments for this will expire shortly — I write this comment just to point out something that is obvious to me , but may not be to others. On Nov 14 2025 trump canceled the 40% tariffs he imposed on Brazilian beef and other products earlier this year. He said it would help reduce the inflationary pressures on the price of beef. https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-cuts-tariffs-beef-coffee-other-foods-inflation-concerns-mount-2025-11-14/. Now I know there are many things that drive prices — Thank you Mr. Billings for your very informative link. I not only read the article itself, but went down some of the associated “rabbit holes” — fascinating and informative. Also, thank you Murray for mentioning the drought in cattle country. But here’s the rub– trump firmly asserts that increasing tariffs ( that he imposed shortly before beef prices started rising) are not to blame for higher prices, but then , a few months later firmly asserts that reducing tariffs ( that he imposed shortly before beef prices started rising) will bring the price of beef down. I read Orwell’s “1984”, and I detect “double speak”….
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